#3? Dang.

The NBA Draft lottery was held last night, and the Wolves ended up with the 3rd pick. For those unfamiliar, the draft lottery puts the top three draft picks up for grabs amongst the NBA teams who did not make it to the playoffs. The teams with the worst records supposedly have more ping pong balls in the lottery, giving them a greater chance of winning the top pick. However, the team with the worst record only has a 25% chance of winning; meaning they also have a 75% chance of "losing" the lottery. After those first three picks are determined by drawing, the remaining order is determined by win-loss record.

Since the NBA has a letter opening ceremony instead of actually drawing the ping pong balls on live TV, people have accused the NBA of fixing the lottery to get star players on big market teams. This year is no different as Timberwolves fans are whining that it was fixed to send the top two players to Chicago and Miami. Only having a 1.7% chance to win, Chicago made a big jump to take the first spot, but Miami actually had the worst record in the league and fell a spot to #2. On top of that, Miami is one of the worst sports cities in America when it comes to attendance (and look who's at the bottom of this list)(oh, and read point #13 on this one).

If these conspiracies were actually true, how would you explain Portland and Seattle getting the top two spots last year? They play in small markets, and the Sonics are actually about to move to Oklahoma City; a veritable hub of media exposure. Or what about the 1992 draft that Wolves fans continually agonize over? The top two picks were sent to two other small market cities: Orlando and Charlotte. We need to relax here. The NBA is not out to get the Timberwolves.

So what do the Wolves do with this pick? Jim Souhan thinks they should trade down.

Begin mini-rant:

And this is why it sucks reading the Star Tribune columnists. Don't get me wrong, I do think they have good writers on staff, but there's not enough of them. In order to provide balanced coverage of all of the major stories and sports franchises in the area, they assign columnists to cover areas they don't have much knowledge or interest in. Jim Souhan and Pat Reusse do great pieces on the Vikings and Twins, but their columns covering the Wolves, Wild, and Gophers sound like they were pieced together from the obnoxius user comments section on the paper's website. It's like they write those asinine columns to spite their editor who's forcing them to meet their quota of Wolves, Wild, and Gophers coverage.

OK, mini-rant against the Star Tribune is over. On to why I don't agree with his idea (except for the part about using this pick to help unload Marco Jaric's bad contract, and he also believes that the Wolves should draft Beasely if he happens to fall down to #3):

Trading down is a wise move for the NFL draft. Football is played with 22 starters on offense and defense, along with all sorts of situational players that are subbed in on certain plays. It's good to build up your team's depth through the draft by acquiring as many picks as you can. If the player you originally wanted is no longer on the board and the next guy on your list of needs isn't projected to be picked that high, you can trade your high pick with another team looking to move up for multiple lower picks.

This doesn't work as well for the NBA, though. There are less players on that see the court and one elite player can have a huge impact on the team. You still need depth, but the Wolves already have a roster full of guys who are not superstar material. These are the ones that need to be molded and developed into solid role/bench players. Adding multiple lower picks would only add to this pool. What the Wolves need is another elite player to take them to another level.

Now the usual consensus in most NBA drafts is that there are one or two players projected to be instant superstars. After those top couple picks are gone, it's a crapshoot. There are lots of guys who are drafted for their all around athleticism and potential; not on their overall basketball skill. This draft is no exception. There is Derrick Rose, Michael Beaseley, and everybody else.

The thing that makes it interesting is the ever-increasing buzz surrounding OJ Mayo, a shooting guard from USC. He didn't blow anybody away with his stats last year, but not every college player does. They often play within coaches systems that don't rely on some of the isolation play that the NBA uses. There's even a current rumor that was cited in Souhan's column and elsewhere saying that the Miami Heat might take Mayo if the Chicago Bulls take Derrick Rose.

That scenario would put Michael Beasely right in the Timberwolves' laps. We already have a star power forward in Al Jefferson who can score at will in the low post. Beasely has more of an outside game (38% from 3-point land) that would work well playing alongside Al. The only thing I wonder is how he'll develop as an NBA defender? This could be the difference between drafting a Rasheed Wallace or an Antoine Walker (who we already have on our roster). The experiment of playing both Beasely and Jefferson together may not work out, but these would be valuable trade assets in a few years if they still continue to develop as individuals.

If the conventional wisdom of the past few months holds up and the top two picks are Rose and Beasely, then the Wolves should select Mayo. He doesn't fill a "need" position like a center or point guard would, but he is clearly a very talented player and appears to be the best available at this point. We already passed up on Brandon Roy two years ago because we had drafted Rashad McCants the year before; and we all know how that worked out.